Logan is right now looking at an estimated $85.3 million opening box office in the United States.
It's a great start, but the actual box office total — to be revealed on Monday — wouldn't have to drop much to put Logan's opening behind X-Men Origins: Wolverine. That "gem" — which has a higher-than-you'd-expect 38 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes — opened at $85.1 million in 2009.
Of course, Logan's opening weekend also has a real shot of beating X2: X-Men United — a critical darling — if that estimate skews slightly higher. The second X-Men movie delivered an impressive $85.6 million start in 2003.
Assuming Logan's current estimate holds, it will finish its opening weekend as the fifth largest among X-Men movies. Only Deadpool ($132.4 million), X-Men: The Last Stand ($102.8 million), X-Men: Days of Future Past ($90.8 million), and X2 saw better starts.
It's also worth noting: Logan is officially the highest-grossing R-rated March release in history. That record was previously held by 300, which opened in 2007 with $70.9 million.
All that said, opening weekends aren't always the best markers for success. Chased by terrible reviews, X-Men Origins fell off a proverbial cliff in its second weekend and beyond, concluding its domestic run with $179.9 million — slightly more than double what was earned in its first three days.
By contrast, X2 ended its run with a domestic take of $214.9 million after spending roughly the same amount of time in theaters. Both it and Origins ran from May to September in their respective release years.
The real story of Logan's box office will be told in upcoming weeks. Will repeat viewings and positive word-of-mouth propel a gentler drop-off in ticket sales? All the happy buzz — from critics and fans alike — will certainly help.
That is exactly what seems to be happening with Get Out, Jordan Peele's directorial debut. The highly political comedy/horror — which explores the dark underbelly of a wealthy, white, ostensibly liberal community when a black man comes to visit — has proven it's got staying power.
The movie's estimated second weekend domestic take of $26.1 million represents a tiny 22 percent drop-off in ticket sales. Get Out opened on Feb. 24 and posted an initial three-day total of $33.4 million.
These might not be blockbuster numbers, but they're huge for a movie with a reported budget of $4.5 million. And its 22 percent decline in ticket sales over the first two weeks — very small by Hollywood standards — suggests that positive buzz is doing its job in growing an audience.
That's the big stat we'll be looking at in the weeks to come as Logan settles in for its theatrical run.
All current box office estimates are provided by comScore and all historical data comes from Box Office Mojo.Topics: box office, Entertainment, Movies, get out, logan